Looking Ahead to Factors Shaping Market Activity

According to EY's 23rd edition of its Global Capital Confidence Barometer, 89% of life sciences executives saw a drop in profits in 2020, with two-thirds saying they cancelled or failed to complete a planned acquisition (1). According to PwC, biotech acquisition activity in the US $2-$10 billion (€1.7-€8.5 billion) range is accelerating, and funding will continue to trend as well, with companies looking for strategic deal making and partnership opportunities (6). According to the government's impact assessment, up to 1800 transactions could be notified each year (11). [...]any transactions since 12 November 2020 could be eligible to be called for review retrospectively, so there is the possibility that a deal that has already been completed may be subject to intervention (11).

Non-traditional Security: A Risk-Centric View

As described in Saha and Chakrabarti (South Asian Survey 28(1):111-132, 2021: 112), "COVID-19 has firmly established itself as the single largest security disrupter of this century in the non-traditional sense. It has necessitated a recalibration of securitisation framework.…" The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic certainly illustrates the transnational nature of today's security landscape. Similarly, events such as the WannaCry cyber-attack, global terrorism, serious and organized crime, disease vectors, and natural disasters create challenges that affect both global and national security interests. Such events are shaping the security calculus across dimensions such as health security, economic security, food security, and energy security emerging as interrelated concepts that characterize the security landscape as complex. The increased transnational flow of people, goods, money, and information as products of "globalization” has also changed the security landscape in terms of the "globalization” of risks. This transnational/transborder nature of security challenges our traditional views of national security characterized by state-based, military dimensions. The non-traditional security calculus thereby emerges as part of the security landscape that can often have significant national security impacts through the implications associated with systemic risks. Outstanding scholarly work has been presented on the topic of non-traditional security through the lens of International Relations and Contemporary Security Studies (e.g., see Collins, Contemporary security studies. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2013). This chapter presents non-traditional security through a risk-centric lens and explores the notion of systemic risk as part of the security calculus. COVID-19 will be used as an illustrative example of a shock to societal systems that reveals systemic risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts across the non-traditional security domains. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Analysis of Network Security Protection Based on Digital Economy

Since the first half of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has continued to spread across the country. Based on this background, with the continuous promotion of a new round of technological innovation and industrial transformation, and the combined impact of the epidemic factors, the digital economy has become a new pillar of the steady development of China's macro economy. Emerging industries have provided good opportunities for the digital economy. Cyber security has risen to the height of national sovereignty, which is the direct embodiment of national competitiveness and the foundation for the healthy development of the digital economy. However, with the concentration of massive data and the progress of information technology, the data is easily and conveniently used, personal privacy security, corporate business secrets and even national security suffered serious damage, and network security protection has also become the bottleneck of the digital economy to a new level. It is particularly important to strengthen the network security governance capacity, improve the network security laws and regulations, and implement the hierarchical protection system. © 2023 SPIE.

Empirical Evolution of the WTO Security Exceptions Clause and China's Discourse

Influenced in recent years by multiple factors in recent years, such as antiglobalization, the return of the state and the major public health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the international community has entered a nontraditional security era. In the name of protecting nontraditional security, many countries have actively and frequently adopted abnormal regulatory measures and have attempted to seek exemptions from obligations through article XXI of the GATT or article 73 of the TRIPS (Security Exceptions). A series of economic and trade mega-agreements, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (USMCA), the Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Treaty between the Federative Republic of Brazil and the Republic of India (Brazil-India BIT), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), that have been concluded since 2018 cover more nontraditional security in their security exceptions clauses or essential security interests clauses, possibly leading to more countries expanding the interpretation and application of the security exceptions clause in future practice. The circular promotion of the security exceptions clause in its evolution and textual development may break the overall balance of existing WTO rules and exacerbate further imbalances. This chapter specifically studies the interpretation and logical evolution of security exceptions clauses in the DS512 and DS567, providing an empirical basis for the justification of disputed measures through the invocation of article XXI of the GATT. It is recommended that under the guidance of an overall national security concept, China should consider its national conditions, taking both its present and its long-term interests into account. Regarding China's security laws, policies and practices, it is recommended that the double-edged sword function of the security exceptions clause should be focused on foreign contrasts. That is, the security exceptions clause should be regarded as a defensive clause in terms of its position and content design and should be invoked under a high level of self-restraint in dispute settlement to avoid excessive strengthening or even alienation of national security during execution and to provide institutional support for a more balanced Chinese discourse in the establishment of a new generation of international economic rules. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023.

Border securocracy: Global expansion of the U.S. Department of homeland security bureaucratic apparatus before, during and beyond covid-19

The U.S. border security apparatus is moving around the globe as climate change, the coronavirus pandemic and corporatization create political and economic chaos. Global north governments seek to keep out migrants and refugees from the global south while corporations in the global north want protection to maintain their wealth. U.S. government bureaucratic agencies such as Custom and Border Protection's Border Patrol Tactical Unit are sent abroad to expand U.S. influence in an empire of borders to train receptive government security and border forces and to regulate, detain and prevent migrants and refugees well beyond the U.S. border. Governments are waging war against the people, creating a "securocracy" comprised of profit seeking military arms corporations and allied government agents to quell resistance and border crossers. Examined are the effects and impacts of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on global border securocracy beginning with an analysis of the Mexico-U.S. border, moving to international borders in Latin America and beyond. The theoretical concept of border securocracy is expanded from the securocracy literature in the context of the north versus south globalization conflict. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Administrative Theory & Praxis (Taylor & Francis Ltd) is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

DEVELOPMENT OF DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVING THE MONITORING OF THE STATE ECONOMIC SECURITY UNDER CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

The long-term pressure of the COVID-19 pandemic and hostilities in Ukraine have caused catastrophic consequences in all sectors of life, which negatively affect the overall level of economic security of the state. In these circumstances, the task to adjust the mechanisms for assessing the state of economic security, taking into account existing non-standard challenges, is urgent. The object of this study is the processes of transformation of mechanisms for monitoring the state of economic security of the state under conditions of global instability. The conceptual foundations for monitoring the state of economic security of the state have been deepened and, taking into account the results of the expert assessment, the directions of its modification have been proposed for practical application. The need to revise the weighting values of indicators of the state of economic security, taking into account the principle of "critical” link, has been determined. The need to update the list of indicators of the state of economic security, taking into account structural changes in the state economy, was emphasized. It is recommended to use the multiplicative form of the integral indicator of the state of economic security instead of the additive one, as well as the method of the reference coefficient instead of the normalization method relative to the scope of variation. The state of economic security in the context of its structural parts is comprehensively assessed. The existing trends of deterioration of the state of demographic, investment-innovative, macroeconomic subsystems, which should be considered as sources of "weak link”, have been registered. The decrease in the level of economic security from 52 % in 2007 to 47 % in 2021 has been proved. The practical use of the scientific results reported here could contribute to improving the effectiveness of management decisions aimed at strengthening the system of economic security of the state under modern conditions of global instability © Copyright 2023, Authors. This is an open access article under the Creative Commons CC BY license

Climate Change and the Great Power Rivalry in the Arctic

The world politics of the 2020s seems to consist of two realities: People are concerned about an ecological catastrophe, as tion kills and climate change threatens societies. The focus of this article is to discuss climate change, and state politics in the Arctic in the context of the two realities. Behind this is the assumption that climate change mitigation is a challenge to state politics and national security. The commentary assumes that, although in world politics, there is a new (East-West) great power rivalry with its related conflicts, no armed conflicts appear in the Arctic, but environmental degradation and rapid climate change still threaten the people. The study firstly analyses how environmental issues came onto the political agenda of States, in particular, that of the Arctic states;secondly, it discusses huge investment packages and great power rivalry as substitutes for climate change mitigation, revealing the political inability of states;thirdly, it examines the Arctic from the point of view of functional cooperation on environmental protection, and that on science;and finally, it concludes what has possibly gone wrong in state politics related to the environment, and could be taken as the biggest challenge.

Legality of export restrictions imposed during COVID-19 in international economic law

Purpose: This paper aims to examine options under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) for exempting or justifying export restrictions or prohibitions that are in principle prohibited under Article XI:1 GATT. The paper begins by examining the exception under Article XI:2 (a) GATT, before going on to the arguments under GATT Article XX (b) and (j). In addition, the analysis considers the national security exception in Article XXI (b) (iii) GATT, given that WTO members have increasingly invoked this provision in recent years, as well as during the pandemic, when Namibia implemented COVID-19-related trade restrictions under the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade based on national security concerns. Design/methodology/approach: The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade have been far-reaching. Countries have attempted to place export restrictions on personal protective equipment and COVID-19 vaccines. Even though export restrictions are generally unlawful under the GATT, countries have decided it is necessary at this time. Members have relied heavily on the "national security” and "critical shortage” exceptions outlined in the GATT. Findings: This paper concludes that, depending on the circumstances of a particular case, a pandemic may constitute an emergency in international relations, as defined in Article XXI (b) (iii) GATT, and that, in such a situation, a WTO member may legitimately take action to protect its vital security interests. Originality/value: The paper provides an original conclusion based on WTO case law on an issue of contemporary relevance. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

A Review of An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for Twenty-First-Century Order by Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper

The authors stress that both economic and military investments will be required to counter China's integration of statecraft and industry.1 It is further suggested that a selective procurement of allies within the Asian-Pacific region is necessary to counter Chinese economic dominance, military aggression, and coercive practices.2 An Open World suggests that the United States should look to build on existing relationships within trade and security cooperatives in the Indo-Pacific region and bolster the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as the Quad, to become a formal alliance that projects a robust military presence to counter Chinese aggression and encroachment within the South China Sea. [...]the authors point out the current dearth of expertise, talent, and diplomatic finesse that exists within the United States Department of State. In November 2020, the four members participated in a joint naval exercise meant to improve sea readiness for their fleets.6 This exercise was followed by a virtual meeting the following March and the establishment of working groups to tackle challenges such as supply-chain resilience and COVID-19 vaccine production and distribution.7 If these working groups are the extent of the Quad's influence, then the United States needs to seek other alliances to combat China's aggressive economic and military tactics. Coupling public and private sector goals While this type of partnership with private firms is promising, the authors admit to the widening gap between the national security interests of the public sector and the industrial mission of private corporations, which seems to weaken their argument.

Immigration Law's Boundary Problem: Determining the Scope of Executive Discretion

In immigration law, executive discretion has become contested terrain. Courts, officials, and scholars have rarely distinguished between regulatory discretion, which facilitates exclusion and removal of noncitizens, and protective discretion, which safeguards noncitizens' reliance interests. Moreover, courts have long discerned an internal-external divide in discretion, deferring to executive measures that exclude noncitizens abroad, while reducing deference for measures concerning noncitizens who have already entered the United States. Immigration law needs a cohesive framework for executive discretion. This Article suggests a stewardship model to fill that gap.Recent developments have emphasized the need for a coherent model of discretion. The Trump Administration altered the landscape of executive discretion, seizing every chance to make the law harsher. The Biden Administration's efforts to correct this imbalance have been only partially successful. For example, the Biden Administration has issued a final rule supporting the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program and has issued enforcement guidelines that prioritize threats to national security and public safety and address recent irregular entries at the border. The Biden Administration has also sought to end the Trump Administration's "Remain in Mexico " program, which subjects tens of thousands of asylum seekers to peril. However, for over a year, President Biden retained the Title 42 program, which precluded asylum in the name of preventing the introduction of COVID-19. That program undercuts asylum and does not perform its ostensible public health mission. Only an unfavorable court decision in 2022 spurred efforts to terminate Title 42. At that point, another court enjoined Title 42's termination, illustrating yet again the confused state of executive discretion.A workable approach to executive discretion requires returning to first principles. To achieve these goals, the stewardship model highlights three factors: fit with the statutory framework, protection of reliance interests, and avoidance of adverse impacts on foreign relations. This Article applies these values to DACA, the Biden enforcement guidelines, Title 42, and the Remain in Mexico program.

Covid-19 Vaccination in the National Security System of the Russian Federation: Coordination of Private and Public Interests

The subject. Having a proven positive social and economic effect, vaccination remains one of the most important institutions in the system of public safety. The development of this institution requires a rational legal support, considering not only current epidemic process, but also potential threats of bioterrorism and the development of biological weapons. In this light, effective legal regulation of vaccination measures, determination of their desirable forms and scope of the population coverage, as well as cooperation between citizens and the State in ensuring epidemiological safety become a matter of paramount importance. The purpose. The authors propose to discuss two issues: the limits of the possibility of introducing the institution of mandatory vaccination and the issue of legal assistance for the population to participate in vaccination programs in order to achieve the maximum possible coverage. The methodology. The article employs a comprehensive approach which combines formal interpretation and comparative analysis of legal acts and courts decisions with the insights from sociology, behavioral sciences and discourse analysis. The article focuses on the international and national standards of regulation of the vaccination by the means of public and private law in order to achieve herd immunity. Our analysis of the vaccination institute place in the legal system demonstrates that this institution can be included in a row of disciplinary, coercive and binding institutions for citizens prescribing mandatory participation. However, its coercive potential is relatively small and is limited to certain segments of the society that are of strategic importance for ensuring the epidemiological safety. The article posits that such groups remain in the legal field of exceptions, whereas in general, the vaccination institute presumes that the mandatory component is prescribed primarily to the state, not the citizens. And therefore, the citizen's participation in vaccination has the character of an individual rational choice. Conclusions. Our analysis shows that the law on vaccination should be focused on the facilitating socially desirable individual choice rather than binding norm prescription. In this area, the main tasks of legal regulation are establishment of an adequate system of accounting and distribution of individual risks, as well as fair compensation for possible damages during vaccinations. The second main direction of legal development is overcoming information asymmetry in the situation of individual decision-making in order to reduce the shortage of reliable data and to ensure effective communication within an expert community, the state and the person. We propose that this development contributes to the transformation of a purely legal norm on vaccination into a social and cultural one and strengthens the cooperative strategies of citizens in the fight against vaccine-controlled diseases.

Negative Sentiment Modeling and Public Legal Liability from Urban Green Space: A Framework for Policy Action in China

This paper intends to optimize the urban green space (UGS) management and implementation strategies by analyzing climate change models and reviewing economic, energy, and public health policies. This paper studies the public perception of climate change-induced public health emergency (PHE) in China by surveying online public comments. Specifically, it looks into public health perception, anxiety perception, relative deprivation, and emotional polarity from public online comments. The following conclusions are drawn through the empirical test of 179 questionnaires. The findings revealed that health risk perception has a positive predictive effect on relative deprivation and anxiety perception. The higher the health risk perception, the stronger the relative deprivation and anxiety are. Anxiety perception and relative deprivation have mediating effects in the model. In addition, the main research method adopts a questionnaire survey. The mediating effect between each variable is further studied. This paper analyzes the citizens' right to health and public health protection under climate change, and explains public risk perception and anxiety perception. Meanwhile, the evaluation cases are used to analyze the public health and UGS construction strategies to suggest climate compensation laws and improve the urban greening rate. This finding has practical reference value for promoting the deep integration of UGS and public health. It can promote the development and planning of UGS under climate change and biodiversity loss and has significant reference value for improving negative emotions and the public legal liability system.

Developing a laundered funds destination theory: applying the Walker–Unger gravity model to US-based money launderer country preference from 2000 to 2020

PurposeAlthough economists and academics have studied money laundering for several decades, there continues to be gaps in the research due to a lack of reliable data on money laundering activity, and a lack of detailed sources and methods of collection in government-based reporting. The purpose of this study is to apply the Walker-Unger gravity model and examine US-based money launderer preference for the 2000-2020 time frame. This paper then compares those results with previous applications of the model and identifies trends, which may serve as the foundations of a money launderer preference theory. The results of the investigation ranked countries by preference of US-based money launderers and determined that there was consistency in country destination preference even during recessionary periods.Design/methodology/approachThe Walker–Unger gravity model as applied by Roman et al. (2021) is used to conduct the investigation, to maintain consistency in the application of the Walker–Unger model and further the objective of validating the attractiveness simulation. The model tests the predictive capability of the independent variables to establish the degree of attractiveness each country represents for the funds of US-based money launderers. A score is generated by the model, which is then used to analyze and interpret its significance in relation to all sampled countries.FindingsModel results reveal the countries with the highest attractiveness for US-based money launderers during 2000–2020 were Australia, the Bahamas, Bermuda, Canada, Cayman Islands, Norway, Monaco, Puerto Rico, Switzerland and the USA. Model results show that over the two decades the proportion of money flow scores changed but not to a degree that would alter the country preference of US-based money launderers. US-based money launderers tended to use the same countries for their illicit financial activities, regardless of the state of the legitimate economy.Research limitations/implicationsOne of the limitations of the model is that it does not show the effect of money laundering on legitimate economic activity.Practical implicationsThe model results will give insight into the preferred destination of US-based money launderers and therefore frame one component of money laundering activities in the USA for the examined time period.Social implicationsA secondary objective of this study is to evaluate if any changes to US-based money launderer preferences occurred during the three most recent periods of economic downturn in the USA.Originality/valueThe model results will give insight into the preferred destination of US-based money launderers and therefore frame one component of money laundering activities in the USA for the examined time period. A secondary objective of this study is to evaluate if any changes to US-based money launderer preferences occurred during the three most recent periods of economic downturn in the USA. The periods chosen are the 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 2007/08 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Phantom Sounds, Haunting Images

Powerful, imaginative, and long-lasting, the half-year mobilisation and its iconography are hard to forget, and the ongoing political crackdown keeps our memory alive with constant republications of photographs and video clips of the events. Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the proclamation of the National Security Law (NSL) on 30 June 2020, protests have, however, almost disappeared from Hong Kong's public spaces. [...]many films, books, and artworks have vanished from screening venues, shops, and libraries. Soon after the end of the movement, two anonymous books documented these ephemeral displays challenging authorities and urban order (Abaddon 2020;Guardian of Hong Kong 2020). [...]in October 2021, the Film Censorship Ordinance was amended to align with the NSL (Ho 2021b).

Accelerating Biosafety Capacity Building to Ensure National Biosecurity

Biosafety is an essential part of the national security system, which is related to people's lives and health, the country's longterm stability, and sustainable development, which is the bottom line that must be guaranteed. The international biosafety situation is grim and complex, while domestic biosafety faces challenges. Therefore, biosafety capacity building has become an international hot spot, among which scientific and technological innovation, talent training, and infrastructure platform construction are the top priorities. Although China has achieved strategic results in the rapid identification of pathogens, research, and development of specific vaccines and medicine in fighting against COVID-19 by relying on scientific research, it has shown the urgency for scientific and technological innovation in biosafety. Therefore,China has developed a strategic plan on "promoting the modernization of the national security system and capabilities, resolutely safeguarding national security and social stability" included in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Hence, it is suggested to promote biosafety capacity building further to improve China's biosecurity system, protect people's health, ensure national security, and maintain long-term peace and stability by improving the layout of scientific and technological frontiers, promoting the construction of biosafety discipline, training of more special talents, and infrastructure platform construction.

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Gray Rhinos, Complexity, Prediction, and National Security

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously challenged the security of a number of countries world-wide. It has also challenged efforts to conceptualize and therefore analyze its occurrence, course, and effects. I argue that the concept of the Gray Rhino, a rare, impactful event that has detectable signals, is the best framework for anticipating, understanding, and mitigating the pandemic and similar Gray Rhino threats. Because Gray Rhinos are rare, they challenge traditional concepts of prediction and this paper will also explore what prediction can usefully mean in the context of Gray Rhino events. Properly conceptualizing pandemics as Gray Rhinos is important because COVID-19 will undoubtedly not be the last pandemic the world, and the U.S., will face. It is even more important to have a conceptual and analytical framework for Gray Rhino events in general because there are other systemic shocks (natural disasters, political upheavals, economic crises, major terrorist attacks) that are equally rare, impactful, and detectable, and that have similar social, economic, and political effects. Modeling the complexity of the systems that produce and are impacted by Gray Rhinos is also essential;the immediate effects of a Gray Rhino can often be mitigated (e.g. increased production of equipment and vaccines, economic aid) but the more pernicious effects ripple throughout the system, sometimes for years. An analytical framework for detecting Gray Rhinos needs to be developed and sustained so that the nation can plan against, anticipate, and mitigate in order to enhance the nation's durability. This paper outlines an analytical framework necessary to accomplish this and provides recommendations for how such a system could be sustained as a government/academic/private sector consortium. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Distorting Your Perception of Russia's Aggression: How Can We Combat Information Warfare?

Since the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war started recently, there is a lack of peer-reviewed scholarly literature directly discussing the war and the use of information warfare. [...]this article presents its findings mainly through content and documentary analysis of official and media publications in Russian, English, and Chinese. Information Warfare The term information warfare, or information war, was developed by Russia and is widely used. Since the early 1990s, Igor Panarin has been leading the discussion of information warfare.2 He considers information warfare a psychological 1 Andrew Anthony, "March in Support of Ukraine in London: Everything Was Turning Blue and Yellow," The Guardian, March 27, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/27/march-in-support-of-ukraine-in-london-everything-was-turning-blue-and-yellow. [...]it actively develops information warfare to gain the capability of influencing public opinions and counteracting Western influence. [...]China emulates Russia by using information campaigns to promote pro-China narratives, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic, to confront the West.11 Meanwhile, the West, especially the United States, has considered Russia and China a threat to the Western-dominated world order. [...]in the eyes of Western scholars or governments, the term information warfare represents the weaponized spread of pro-Russia and pro-China information to gain the Western audience's support.12 Take the United States National Security Strategy as an example.

The Great Power Competition Volume 2: Contagion Effect: Strategic Competition in the COVID-19 Era

Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future. The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been plagued by economic and political uncertainty amidst dramatic shifts in the global power structure. With the pandemic now exacerbating the volatility in this already fragile region, the U.S.‘s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination. A complicated stew of factors such as weakening of established governance systems, the emboldening of extremist individuals and groups through advances in digital technology, the humanitarian crises in Afghanistan and Syria, and the intensification of the great power competition with China and Russia are creating a fertile environment for the growth of violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Such organizations take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest, which further undermine stability and the potential for peace and prosperity. While it is still early to fully understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. policy, this book provides a timely analysis of relevant dynamics such as popular radicalization, digital information ecosystems, networks of influence, and new capabilities to recognize and prepare for other such black swan events in the region. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.